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Week ahead: Indian summer, October storms?

20. Sep 2019∣Martin Enlund, Andreas Steno Larsen

• Tailwinds for equities, and headwinds for bonds – for now… • Disastrous Swedish labour market figures add pressure on the Riksbank to ease • EA PMI likely to remain in easing territory for the ECB

Economics

Sweden: Growing headwinds for the Riksbank

20. Sep 2019∣Torbjörn Isaksson, Susanne Spector

We fear that the labour market will continue to weaken. There are also signs that confidence in the inflation target is eroding. Thus, we expect the Riksbank to cut rates.

Economics

Bank of England stroke a more dovish tone at the September meeting, implying that persistent Brexit uncertainty could dampen demand and inflation, leading to lower interest rates. We and (our AI model) expect the BoE to be on hold for rest of 2019.

Fixed Income

Market Pulse DKK: Prepayment of DKK 195bn, record high issuance and tight spreads. Not a good combination!

19. Sep 2019∣Anders Skytte Aalund, Kia Marie Fjorbak Rasmussen

Record high prepayments and issuance activity combined with low spreads and limited excess pickup will in our view put pressure on callable bonds.

What does oil price volatility after attack on Saudi Arabia tell us about RUB-oil relationship?

19. Sep 2019∣Tatiana Evdokimova

Nordic Covered Bonds 2019-2020

19. Sep 2019∣Kia Marie Fjorbak Rasmussen

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