Sales growth could normalise in H2 2018 – Updated 13 Aug
Scanfil reported 7% better net sales in Q2 than market consensus predicted, while the operating profit margin has remained above 7%. Revenue growth was 14% in the last 12 months y/y. However, guidance is now for a maximum 7% y/y sales growth for H2 2018. Our forecast for H2 2018 is currently 5%.
Marketing material commissioned by Scanfil Oyj
A good start for the year – Updated 2 May 2018
Q1 figures were slightly better than market consensus
The company reported 14% revenue growth from Q1. In the previous quarter (Q4 2017) sales growth was 18%. If it maintains this speed, the company will outpace all estimates for full year 2018. Regardless of the company keeping the full-year guidance unchanged on results day, we upgrade our 2018 EPS estimate by 5%.
Operating profit margin was 7.4% in Q1
EBIT was EUR 10m (consensus EUR 9m) in Q1. Costs did not grow in line with revenue growth, which is why Scanfil was able to improve profitability y/y. However, the comparison period was also easy because of overheads from the restructuring done a year ago. Productivity has finally improved at the Myslowice plant, which is also one of the reasons for the better EBIT margin than seen in the last three years. The company’s long-term financial target has been a 7% EBIT margin.
The range in our valuation approach is EUR 5.0-6.1
We base our fair value on a combination of peer group and DCF analysis. The equally weighted range from our four different valuation approach drivers (DCF, P/B, EV/EBITDA and P/E) is EUR 5.2-6.3 (previously EUR 5.0-6.1).
Improving demand supports full-year earnings – Updated 17 April 2018
Scanfil’s time to shine
Scanfil has witnessed an improvement in customer demand since the beginning of the year and upgraded its full-year 2018 EBIT guidance from EUR 33-37m to EUR 36-40m. We also upgrade our EBIT estimate by some 5%. Our new revenue growth forecast is 7%, while our new EBIT margin estimate for 2018E is 6.7% (previously 6.4%).
Volumes have been good in Q1
One of the main reasons for Scanfil’s recent improvement is its broader customer portfolio. Scanfil is not more dependent on the telecom sector and we argue that increased volumes have been the main driver behind the strong Q1 rather than product mix or pricing. There has not been one individual customer making the difference and the improving demand is instead coming from several sectors. Raw materials represent some 70% of revenue and cost inflation could very well be a threat for the company. However, the time lag for a raw material cost recovery is good as Scanfil acquires components based on the customer order.
The range in our valuation approach is EUR 5.0-6.1
We base our fair value on a combination of peer group and DCF analysis. The equally weighted range from our four different valuation approach drivers (DCF, P/B, EV/EBITDA and P/E) is EUR 5.0-6.1 (previously EUR 4.8-5.9).
Scanfil’s time to shine – Updated 6 April 2018
An unnoticed jewel
Electronics manufacturing services (EMS) player Scanfil is active in the electronic device subcontractor market, which is set to grow by over 6% globally per year, according to IDC. The company has what we consider to be the right strengths in
the very competitive EMS sector, allowing it to protect its market position. We also believe that the operating margin improvement seen last year will continue this year.
A survivor in a competitive industry
Scanfil has faced several difficult years, but has emerged a survivor. The core strengths we see in the company are its elastic business model and extensive experience in the EMS sector.
Valuation is slightly below the sector median
We expect market demand for EMS subcontractors to remain strong for the next ten years at least. Small subcontractors typically trade at a small discount compared to larger
competitors. We do not expect Scanfil to grow faster than the industry and therefore do not find a clear premium compared to peers warranted.
We base our fair value on a combination of peer group and DCF analysis. The equally weighted range from our four different valuation approach drivers (DCF, P/B, EV/EBITDA and P/E) is EUR 4.8-5.9.
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