In his best-selling book, “Thinking, fast and slow”, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman describes a phenomenon he calls the illusion of financial skill. Analyzing the correlation between the rankings of investment advisers by their annual performance over eight years, he found zero correlation, meaning it’s mostly luck rather than skill behind the good results.
Nordea seems to be keeping a very tight grip on its luck with RUB forecasting. For the second year in a row, the Russian research team at Nordea remains one of the three most accurate forecasters of the RUB worldwide, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine methodology.
The awards recognize the firms that provided the most accurate predictions of FX rates in Reuters polls – the world’s leading surveys of professionals, widely cited by researchers, investors and policymakers around the globe.
Nordea won the top spot in 2016:
And came in third place in 2017:
Awards for foreign exchange are based on performance providing one-month forecasts to Reuters polls for individual FX rates, grouped by major and emerging market currency pairs.
Among only Russian contributors of RUB forecasts to Reuters polls, the Nordea Research team was named the best RUB forecaster in 2016 as well as 2017 and the first half of 2018.
“Intense cooperation between the global Nordea Research team and local Nordea Russia research has been the key to this success. Accurate EM currency forecasts are crucially dependent on the global financial outlook and the perception of the prevailing mood (risk-on or risk-off) in the market,” says Russia Chief Economist Tatiana Evdokimova.
This award reveals how Nordea Research, with the benefit of first-hand knowledge of the Russian market from the local research team, delivers value to Nordea clients.
Nordea Research provides the following FX research products:
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