Commissioned Research: Magnolia Bostad

A lovely bouquet of project starts, with more to come

Marketing material commissioned by Magnolia Bostad

Magnolia Bostad, founded in 2009 by Fredrik Holmström and Andreas Rutili, is a Swedish residential developer of rental and tenant-owned apartments, care facilities and hotels in attractive locations within growth areas. There has been rapid growth in the project portfolio since its creation.

Magnolia Bostad builds attractive and modern homes with smart functions and appealing design; the company has also expanded into care and hotel real estate. It has relatively limited counterparty risk since it divests its rental units to strong financial partners and secures production costs prior to project starts.

The bottom-line machine steams ahead – Updated 3 May

The quarter in numbers

Magnolia Bostad’s Q1 numbers were strong, beating both our estimates and Thomson Reuters’ consensus expectations. At SEK 128m, Magnolia’s Q1 gross profit was the strongest Q1 gross profit in the company’s history, at 603% y/y on very easy comparables, beating Thomson Reuters’ consensus by 83% and our forecast by 100% The rental and care business units steam on, with a project of 275 rental apartments sold during the quarter, along with one 58-unit Care project. The dilution from minorities was minimal in the quarter, yielding EPS of SEK 2.14. Full-year LTM EPS landed at SEK 7.51, meaning the LTM P/E is 7.0x.

High peformance in rental and care…

It is positive to see both rental and care continuing to bloom with future potential in the rights portfolio. With Magnolia breaking ground on its first care and hotel projects as recently as Q4, the diversification of the business model has been proven yet again.

…Spiced with tenant-owned contracts without lost focus

On top of that, the company has managed to sign ~40 tenants-owned contracts despite the current environment for such apartments. Most of these are in future projects not yet accounted for in terms of profit recognition. This bodes well for a possible recovery of the company’s tenant-owned sales. In the meantime, focus is on rentals, care and hotel projects, with 1.6% of units under production solely attributable to direct tenant-owned development. The rights portfolio is also focused on rental, care and hotels.

Read the full updated report here.

A lovely bouquet of project starts, with more to come – Updated 26 February

The quarter in numbers – strongest gross profit to date

Magnolia Bostad’s Q4 numbers were strong, beating both our and consensus’ expectations. Gross profit, the best representation of Magnolia’s performance in our view, was 50% above consensus and beat our expectations by 59%. At SEK 245m, this is the strongest gross profit performance to date with 58% CAGR from Q4 2015.

Proving its presence in Care and Hotels

Magnolia sold its first two projects within the Hotel segment, totalling 500 units, and its first project within Care, totalling 60 units. The company has thus proven its presence in Hotels and Care while delivering 3% above our expectations on the number of residential units, ie 663 versus 641. In terms of units sold, this quarter was the strongest ever seen and the performance in the non-traditional segments was a cushion to earnings that have relied purely on residentials until this point. This bodes well for future sales.

Read the full updated report here.

Waiting for the blooming season – Updated 12 December 2017

Building rights portfolio and agreements add strength

Substantial investment in the building rights portfolio and securing development rights (options), together with framework agreements with customers, should underpin the short‐term outlook on volume and earnings.

For the investor that is interested in the latest report on Magnolia, we provide the full downloadable report here.

Nordea Markets is the commercial name for Nordea’s international capital markets operation. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision.
The document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination.
Nordea Bank AB (publ), Company registration number/VAT number 516406-0120/SE663000019501. The board is domiciled in Stockholm, Sweden.

Conflict of interest

Readers of this document should note that Nordea Markets has received remuneration from the company mentioned in this document for the production of the marketing material. The remuneration is predetermined and is not dependent on the content. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets.

Issuer review

This report has been reviewed, for the purpose of verification of fact or sequence of facts, by the issuer of the relevant financial instruments mentioned in the report prior to publication. The review has led to changes of facts in the report. Completion date: 26 February 2018, 13:50 CET

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